Virol Sin. 2020 Apr 1. doi: 10.1007/s12250-020-00219-0. [Epub ahead of print]

The Rapid Assessment and Early Warning Models for COVID-19.

Bai Z^1,2, Gong Y³, Tian X¹, Cao Y¹, Liu W^1,2,4, Li J⁵.

Abstract

Human beings have experienced a serious public health event as the new pneumonia (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus has killed more than 3000 people in China, most of them elderly or people with underlying chronic diseases or immunosuppressed states. Rapid assessment and early warning are essential for outbreak analysis in response to serious public health events. This paper reviews the current model analysis methods and conclusions from both micro and macro perspectives. The establishment of a comprehensive assessment model, and the use of model analysis prediction, is very efficient for the early warning of infectious diseases. This would significantly improve global surveillance capacity, particularly in developing regions, and improve basic training in infectious diseases and molecular epidemiology.